11-29-2011 – PSEi 14.93B value turnover

Screenshots c/o Firstmetrosec.

Today marked one or probably the highest single day volume in PSEi history. Thanks to MSCI rebalancing. I noticed main actor is csuisse and pepi dumping all BPI and MBT to buy URC, ICT and SMC.

As a trend follower myself, I would have done what they are doing. But at this point, I am starting to get confused as the volume registered high which may be a sign of danger. (High volume signals distribution in an uptrend)

PSEi registered 14.93B pesos turnover! around 70% of these were only in URC, BPI, MBT, ICT, SMC.

During pre-close, I was surprised to see the foreigners forced URC, ICT, SMC to close lower. However, the bid side was pretty heavy! ┬áSo what’s the real thing? Is this a shakeout or what?

I didn’t monitor MBT and BPI as I didn’t have them in my portfolio.

No trade plans were executed today. ICT stops 56.25 and 55.45 were hit but I didn’t sell as I remember the last time that Daiwa forced issues to close lower, they gapped up the next day.

Portfolio -0.24%.

PSEi -0.40%.

I’ll be in Sagada, Mt. Province til Saturday! I’ll monitor my portfolio on my mobile phone. :)

Trade Plan: LC & LCB

LCB (initial position)

B: on breakout. watch the tape! note to self: this is a pennant – prone to false breakout!

S: 1.59

Risk: 0.17

P: Max 50k shares – 1% risk. Start with 25k shares for .50% risk.

LC

Reading was correct to range at .07 volatility (1.48-1.55)

Current position 65k shares is now raised to breakeven. Risk free!

For new position: (flag)

B: 1.56-1.57 (watch the tape)

S: 1.43

Risk: .13-.14

Position: Max 60k shares for 1% risk. Start with 30k for .5% risk.

If this moved according to plan, scrap the EDC trade idea. (Focus on relative strength!)

11-28-2011

4227.88. Just when everyone was expecting a green day, Ms. market surprised us yet again with a -33.71 pts or -0.80%. US Futures was even up 140+ pts. The reason? Slower than expected 3Q GDP growth. Non-sense funnymentals.

Most stocks in my portfolio were unchanged, ICT, LC, MAB, BEL, LR – a sign of indecision.

EDC closed at 6 and I haven’t bought in yet.

SMC opened at 128. low 124.20. closed 125.70 (-1.8%). Value turnover of 600m! Is there a price war going on in here?

MIC was taken care of the triad to close 6.71%! woot!

 

Christmas Wishlist: New Balance Minimus Trail 10!

11-25-2011

Woke up and drove early to the office. Friend asked what I think of the market today. I said, probably flat to down for the first 3 hours and up probably the last hour. I miraculously got it right! :) Did nothing today but watched the tape. AAI went to the floor very fast – that was a first time I saw one.

EDC is starting to get convincing again closed 5.96. A break out the 6 peso round number resistance might still be a good entry.

Reminder to self re EDC: Only enter a trade after the action of the market confirms your opinion and then enter promptly.

Some trades that I should have done recently, URC and BEL – for the simple reason they bounced off their round number pivot points.

Do not trade every day of every year. -Jesse Livermore

Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving. Most foreign traders are out today to celebrate with their families — expected low volume day.

Didn’t execute EDC/FPH trade plans today. They didn’t move as I expected.

BEL respected the psycho support at 4 so I’m holding.

IP was marvelous. I was supposed to buy when it broke 2. My mistake. L:(

^PSEi didn’t bother to respect 4245. Next on my support is 4215.

Portfolio moved -1.18%. The only green stock in my port today is URC. Good to see accumulation above 50 pesos.

Tomorrow’s a new game.